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Ricky’s pick for the Nitto ATP Finals round robin: Alcaraz vs. Medvedev

Three of the top four players in the world have already qualified for the semis at the Nitto ATP Finals. As of Thursday night, Novak Djokovic, Daniil Medvedev, and Jannik Sinner are also safely through.

Now the question is if world No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz will join them on the weekend.

Alcaraz has several avenues to success heading into a Friday afternoon round-robin showdown against Medvedev. If the 20-year-old Spaniard wins, he is in. If he loses, he will still reach the final four if Alexander Zverev loses to Andrey Rublev in the nightcap.

It won’t be easy for Alcaraz to keep his Turin destiny in his own hands. After all, Medvedev is an extremely formidable foe. The third-ranked Russian is already a champion of this tournament (2021) and he finished runner-up to Zverev in 2022. Medvedev is quite capable of winning it again and he is looking good so far this week with straight-set victories over Rublev and Zverev.

Moreover, Medvedev has fared decently enough in this matchup in the past. He is 2-2 lifetime against Alcaraz and dominated their recent U.S. Open semifinal contest.

As for Alcaraz, his post-Wimbledon efforts have been a struggle. The world No. 2 has not won a title since that triumph and he hasn’t reached a final since falling to Djokovic in Cincinnati. Alcaraz is 1-1 so far in Turin, losing to Zverev in three sets before beating Rublev in straights.

As long as Medvedev is motivated despite having already secured a semifinal spot, he should get the job done and perhaps send Alcaraz on vacation.

Pick: Medvedev in 2

Ricky contributes to 10sballs.com and also maintains his own tennis website, The Grandstand. You can follow him on Twitter at @Dimonator.