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Ricky’s picks for the 2023 Nitto ATP Finals

The 2023 ATP season is coming to an end with the Nitto ATP Finals. Hosted in Turin, Italy for the third time, the year-end championship beings on Sunday and runs through next week.

Here is a breakdown of the event–and, of course, my picks.

Nitto ATP Finals
Where: Turin, Italy
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 200 for RR win, 400 for SF win, 500 for final win

Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Novak Djokovic

Prize money:

Participation Fee$325,500*
Round-robin match win$390,000
Semi-final match win$1,105,000
Final win$2,201,000
Undefeated champion$4,801,500

*singles participation fees
1 match: $162,750
2 matches: $244,125
3 matches: $325,500

Green Group
Novak Djokovic
Jannik Sinner
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Holger Rune

Red Group
Carlos Alcaraz
Daniil Medvedev
Andrey Rublev
Alexander Zverev


Green Group
Djokovic over Rune in 2
Sinner over Tsitsipas in 3
Sinner over Djokovic in 3
Tsitsipas over Rune in 3
Djokovic over Tsitsipas in 2
Rune over Sinner in 3

Red Group
Zverev over Alcaraz in 3
Rublev over Medvedev in 3
Zverev over Rublev in 3
Medvedev over Alcaraz in 3
Medvedev over Zverev in 2
Rublev over Alcaraz in 2

I think this tournament sets up very well for Sinner. One, he has home-court advantage in front of the Italian crowd. Moreover, he can’t play Djokovic in the semifinals since they are in the same group. That makes qualifying out of round robin tougher for Sinner, but if he does then he could have a clear path to the final. My bet is that Djokovic and Sinner go head-to-head twice over the coming week. The world No. 4 may pull off one upset, but Djokovic’s motivation level will be a lot higher if there is a rematch in the final.

Semifinal picks: (1G) Sinner over (2B) Medvedev in 3, (2G) Djokovic over (1R) Rublev in 2

Final: Djokovic over Sinner in 3

Ricky contributes to 10sballs.com and also maintains his own tennis website, The Grandstand. You can follow him on Twitter at @Dimonator.